Is the IMF a Bad Prescription for Jamaica?

When the International Monetary Fund first started in December 1945 it was aimed at building a framework that would help countries to have a stable economy and correct macroeconomic imbalances so as to prevent a repeat of the great depression of the 1930s. The IMF lists as its core function to ‘ensure the stability of the international monetary system—the system of exchange rates and international payments that enables countries (and their citizens) to buy goods and services from each other. This is essential for sustainable economic growth,  increasing living standards, and alleviating poverty.’ (IMF website, 2010) Eighty three years later one has to question if the Fund is serving its main purpose.

                         Minister of Finance and Planning, Dr. Peter Phillips (left) 

             Head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Mission to Jamaica, Jan Kees Martin (center) 

                              Bank of Jamaica Governor, Brian Wynter

The Mexican crises in the early 90s along with the East Asian crisis in 1997 are two vivid examples of the IMF’s failure.  The Mexican government had a lot of creditors and they had to pay back in full in a short time.  The government was forced to spend all their reserves to honour its obligation.  The IMF along with the US government created a plan to turn some of the short term debt into long term debt.  As such the IMF and Mexico entered into a stand by arrangement which provided immediate and well needed cash.  One of the conditions of the loan was for the government to have high interest rates.  There was large interest payment along with cheap imports which forced a number of businesses to close.  This caused a ripple effect on the country’s economy.  The Asian crisis began in the mid-1997 and affected the market, stocks, and currencies on several Southeast Asian economies. It was mainly caused by the Mexican crisis which created a domino effect; investors lost confidence in securities in East Asia and began to pull their money.  As the crisis deepened the IMF decided to lend assistance.  The IMF offered a rescue package which like in the case of Jamaica would prevent a default.  The support came with conditions which included the government cutting spending and raising interest rates.

The aim was to restore confidence and protect currency values.  However, economists have argued that the opposite should have been done; interest rates should have been lowered and more opportunities available for businesses to grow and hence developing the productive sector.  The IMF policies caused a reduction in the value of the currencies and stock market and people falling below the poverty line. Thailand, South Korea and Indonesia were the countries most affected by the crisis.

A Wall Street Journal article states that the IMF intervention has been roundly criticized as the role of the International Monetary Fund was so controversial during the crisis that many locals called the financial crisis the "IMF crisis".   

The Fund in 2009, realizing the problems, stated that they overhauled the general lending framework to make it better suited to the country’s needs and streamlined conditions attached to loans.

The fund has been wrong so many times with its prescription for countries that it leaves us to wonder if its plans for Jamaica will be successful.  Just recently the IMF admitted that their austerity measure for Greece was wrong.  An excerpt from the report states:

Market confidence was not restored, the banking system lost 30 percent of its deposits, and the economy encountered a much deeper-than-expected recession with exceptionally high unemployment.  Public debt remained too high and eventually had to be restructured, with collateral damage for bank balance sheets that were also weakened by the recession.

How does one know that the prescription given by the IMF to Jamaica is right? Based on my checks, Jamaica had a facility with approximately 11 times.  Jamaica received its first draw down from the fund in 1979 under an Extended Fund Facility, a deal which ended shortly after it was signed.  Since then we have had other arrangements and to date the only one that was successful was the Extended Fund Facility signed in 1992.  The success would be short-lived because Jamaica shortly after ending that programme started to see negative growth.  The IMF’s rationale is that they had instructed the country to stay on for an additional two years. 

Based on this track record how do we know that the deal will be successful this time.  Whose interest will the arrangements serve?  Certainly the country must adjust its modus operandi in order to move forward on a solid economic path.  Recently Jamaica’s Education Minister indicated that they cannot employ any more teachers. Some persons were shocked at his announcement but it is clearly outlined in the Letter of Intent to the fund.  An excerpt from point twenty of the IMF country report states that

‘Together with a planned net hiring freeze and pension reform, this effort is critical for sustaining wage bill moderation, beyond the relief provided by the wage agreement. The authorities plan to improve the efficiency, quality, and cost effectiveness of the public sector and have adopted a timetable for finalizing the review of the Public Sector Master Rationalization Plan’. 

The section of the report that is most interesting is the part that speaks to the exchange rate.  It states that ‘The recent nominal exchange rate depreciation has been useful, by reversing part of the overvaluation of the real exchange rate that has emerged in recent years, thus supporting price competitiveness’  Let us face the facts, when the dollar depreciates it will likely to cause inflation.  Imports become more expensive and as such our oil bill will increase.  The off spins of an oil increase is very wide, the purchasing power of the people reduces.  However, exports will be cheaper but this serves to benefit the person buying the exports and not those who are selling. But what is the alternative to this problem?  Do we get the dollar at its true value and create an environment that is friendly to investment? Who determines the true value of the dollar?  One thing that must agree to is that it is impossible for the government to enter the market to constantly defend the dollar.  What we need is a boost in the productivity sector which will increase exports.  The government must also create avenues that will assist our dependency on oil and force us as a people to utilize another source of energy.

At the end of the day countries must play their role in ensuring that they have successes on the economic front.  This iron fist approach adopted by the Fund will not serve the interest of the countries. The principles surrounding the formation of the IMF are sound but the action of its operatives is left wanting.  It is full time they clean shop, re-brand and as Jamaicans would say ‘wheel and come back again’. Like many of the other deals brokered with the IMF it places very little emphasis on developing the local productive sector. What is important is that the IMF must give countries the flexibility to invest in the development of local productive sector.   Majority of polices crafted are focused at reducing government spending, increase taxation while creating a free market.  While this will benefit a country in the short term, over time the country will not build its independence.   One thing for sure is that this current IMF deal even if we pass every target will not serve the interest of the people in Jamaica and may have adverse effect on generation to come.

Time To Change Our Political System

Leading up to the 2011 General Election in Jamaica the National Democratic Movement had an advertisement which spoke to kakistocracy.  When I first heard the advertisement I thought it was funny, I even thought it was a waste of airtime.  However, I was reading an article recently and the word came to mind.  kakistocracy simple put is government being controlled by unqualified individuals, and after watching the modus operandi of successive administration I think it is safe to say that we have a number of kakistocrats running this country.

New Tax Package

Recently  Finance Minister Dr. Peter Phillips unleashed a surprise tax package on the people of Jamaica. Now while one cannot speak for the entire Jamaica, this 15.9billion tax package certainly caught a few of us by surprise.  This is even more surprising because a day before the Prime Minister and Finance Minister did a broadcast to the nation; at no point in that broadcast an indication was given that a tax package would be unveiled in parliament. The seemly bully mentality of the government is even more evident when they refused to suspend the passage of the bill to allow the opposition to review the contents. Included in the tax package is a decision to hike employers’ portion of education tax by 0.5 percent and employees by 0.25percent.  Now to many it may seem minuscule but the government proposes to use the money to fund the Students Loan Bureau (SLB).  The Bureau on numerous occasions approached the government for funding and instead of fixing the root cause of the problem the government instead taxed the people of the country to fund the SLB.  Now another measure to plug the hole in the budget is to take 11billion per year for the next four years from the National Housing Trust.  Many young professionals find it difficult to purchase a house and instead of creating more opportunities the government is planning to raid the NHT.  Every time we have a tax package  successive governments promise that the new measure will plug the hole in the budget and bring us to sustainability.  Clearly the measures are not working and the government refuses to attack the root cause of the problem.  We must cut the public sector wage bill, we must produce and we must lower the import bill.  One cannot tax its way out of debt, the more tax impose the more people will try and evade, it will happen as night turns into day.

The  Way Forward

Now after reviewing the way successive administrations govern it is safe to say that we have several unqualified persons leading this country.  It is time we review our political system, we need to establish qualifications for the role of cabinet ministers.  Since cabinet ministers are largely selected from the lower house it would simply mean that there would be a qualification requirement for Members of Parliament.  The law should also be amended to give the Prime Minister the option to select more people from the senate to become ministers.  Moreover ministers should be individuals who are qualified in the field they are placed to serve.  The candidates selected by the Prime Minister should also face a joint select committee for ratification.  The selection committee should comprise seven individuals, three selected by the Prime Minister, three by the Opposition Leader and one by the Governor General.  Cabinet ministers must have a track record in the field that they are chosen to serve and must meet a certain standard. If a prospective candidate is not approved by the selection committee then he/she cannot become a minister of government and the Prime Minister would have to field another candidate.  It is time we raise the bar and have more qualified people sitting in the House of Representatives and by extension the cabinet of Jamaica.   

A Failing Grade for the PNP

Prime Minister Portia Simpson-Miller

The fact that the People’s National Party was given a "bucket to carry water" (when on the 28th of December 2011, they swept to victory at the polls) wasn't much of a secret. The truth is, there was never any real doubt in our minds, that amidst all the prophecies that a vote for Mamma would guarantee ox tail instead of chicken back for Sunday dinner, as one die-hard Comrade convincingly declared in a television interview; those of us who had one ear to the  ground and one eye on the facts very much knew that we were indeed gearing up for challenging times.

Whether in the sweet jubilation of victory or the bitter sorrow of defeat, depending on if orange or green blood runs through his veins; John Public more than likely missed when the incoming Prime Minister herself admitted this by saying there was no honeymoon period ahead for her administration. Her poetic inaugural address littered with the usual signature Portia-style of twice as much fluff than substance went on to note that “In the Global Trade Winds of change, we are not always at liberty to direct these winds but we must set our sails to pilot the good ship Jamaica through these turbulent economic waters to safe harbour.”

A statement like that would give the most doubting of Thomas's the distinct impression that this new administration meant business and was ready, able and poised to take charge of the country's affairs. Albeit, no one genuinely believes all campaign promises, however, we do expect them to come with some amount of sincere possibility, for want of a better coined term.  Country people would say “if it nuh guh suh it near guh suh”.   In keeping with tradition, at the height of the campaign, Team PNP in true form made a host of promises to a host of people, and whiles one is quite aware that twelve months from five years is a merely the tip of the iceberg, it cannot be overlooked that there were many things that we were definitively told would be resolved before the dawning of 2013.  Needless to say, none of these have been forthcoming.

The PNP in its 2011 manifesto entitled ‘Leading the Agenda for Progressive Change’ chastised the previous administration for not signing a deal with the International Monetary Fund. It was evident by October that the IMF deal would not be signed by year end even though Dr. Phillips insisted that it was possible.  What is even more concerning is the seemingly lack of a plan post an IMF deal. The US $400million that we will receive cannot solve the problem. Our major challenge is our balance of payment which is our monetary transaction with the world.  We are spending a lot more on imports than we spend on exports and this creates a huge trade deficit.  We must solve our energy crisis and eat more of what we produce hence reducing our food cost.

The Jamaica Emergency Employment Programme (JEEP) was a major election promise and after much confusion it was finally launched. However, we are yet to see any results highlighting the major impact of this Emergency Employment Programme.  We have however seen a dip in the unemployment rate from 14 per cent to 12.8 per cent.  This credit can arguably be given to JEEP, however there is no sustainability as JEEP does not provide permanent employment. This reduction in unemployment can easily halt if there is no plan to keep the people employed. The government must get serious about job creation; we need jobs that will woo our graduates and reduce the number who leave and reduce the number who leave the country each year.  

The administration also promised the Jamaican people to remove GCT from electricity but instead the threshold was raised to 300kWh of electricity consumed, up from 200kWh.  Customers are now charged GCT on any consumption over 300 KWH. The tax moved from 10 to 16.5 per cent.  

The Net International Reserve (NIR) is currently below the international bench mark. In January 2011 the NIR was at US$1.961 billion and in December it stood at $1.078billion.  If we should have a crisis we have little money to buy

supplies. The international standard stipulates that we should have enough money to buy 12 weeks of imports. Just before Christmas we were at a value equivalent to 11.5weeks of imports.  The dollar also lost 7.4 percent of its value moving from $86 in January to $93.1 in December.

Cabinet of Jamaica

Many of the ministers who are a part of the Simpson-Miller 20 member cabinet have been dismal while a few seems like they are trying. Minister of Technology Phillip Paulwell hit the ground running; we got some encouraging signs when the Telecommunications (Amendment) Act 2012 was passed.  We have already seen some positive spin offs with LIME reducing its rates and forcing Digicel to follow suit. However, there are concerns that the minister has been too quiet for the last quarter of the calendar year.  He promised to implement the number portability policy of which the country should get an update on this issue. Much was expected from Robert Pickersgill Minister of Water, Land, Environment & Climate Change however very little was seen coming from that ministry.  Derrick Kellier who was Minister of Labour under the last PNP government was once again given the portfolio and his performance remains unsatisfactory.  It is time we have a strong labour minister who will fix some fundamental issues especially as it relates to the treatment of employees by their employers.  Peter Bunting the security minister has a seemly laid back approach however based on my political history almost every security minister from as far back as KD Knight have received a failing grade.  It therefore shows that the problem is beyond the minister and it will take collective support to lower crime.  The Minister however must be commended for significant gains made with the lottery scam.

Using the words of Prime Minister Portia Simpson Miller I think it is safe to say ‘time come’ for a cabinet reshuffle.  It is time for the government to get a jump start; we need to hear more from the Prime Minister.  This will give the Jamaican people the idea that she is in charge of the government and playing an active role.  To whom much is given much is expected and the People’s National Party must make some changes as they enter the second year as government.  The country is at a cross roads and we need strong leadership to steer this ship call Jamaica through the rough seas.